Prediction – M8V – Virginia Championship

Alright – Its time to start the predictions… . . . → Read More: Prediction – M8V – Virginia Championship

How did my Ted Phoenix Predictions do?

I was perfect. No need to read any further… really… …mostly… . . . → Read More: How did my Ted Phoenix Predictions do?

Predictions for the 2011 Ted Phoenix Regatta

Time for the big races… . . . → Read More: Predictions for the 2011 Ted Phoenix Regatta

No Regatta Predictions this week…

I should have finished programming before the season started… . . . → Read More: No Regatta Predictions this week…

Three Seconds Until the End of the Season

Is three seconds enough? . . . → Read More: Three Seconds Until the End of the Season

Regional Park Regatta – Predictions revisited.

Not bad for my first try this year… . . . → Read More: Regional Park Regatta – Predictions revisited.

Regional Park Regatta Predictions

First time I’m offering predictions this year. Be gentle… . . . → Read More: Regional Park Regatta Predictions

Walter Mess Regatta Heat Sheets – How I use them.

And why I like to get them as soon as possible… . . . → Read More: Walter Mess Regatta Heat Sheets – How I use them.

Predicting Rowing Performance – Part 3

Last time we looked at how we graphed a race using intervals for a particular class (such as Men’s First Four). Over the course of a season we have more than one race.

In my last post on my graphing method we looked at only one day of racing. Those green lines are simply connecting all the occurrences of a particular team. For example – all the McLean races are connected together. That way I can find McLean from one week to the next. I can also see where lines cross (one team beats another one week – then they trade positions in a future race.) In those cases you try to gather more information to see who might win.

. . . → Read More: Predicting Rowing Performance – Part 3

Predicting Rowing Performance – Part 2

As we saw in part one of this post – I put together a graphing method to help me evaluate how teams had run in their events. The small graphic piece represents the Men’s First Four event from the Darrell Winslow Regatta.

An explanation of what the chart shows: Each column represents a particular race. In the first heat we can see that McLean won, Gloucester was 6 seconds behind the winner, Triangle was 16.5 seconds behind the winner. There were 4 boats in the heat – but it looks like I forgot Mercyhurst Prep (which was about 90 seconds behind the winner)

In the second heat – Woodbridge won. It looks like Fairfax was about (37-14 = 23) 23 . . . → Read More: Predicting Rowing Performance – Part 2

Predicting Rowing Races – Part 1

During the crew season I made a few predictions on races. Now that the season is over I’ll explain how I made those predictions. As I mentioned before – I didn’t find the times listed at regattas to be too useful. This forces us to look for other ideas.

There is a major assumption we are making here. The crews have to be consistent from race to race. If they are not consistent then there is no way to predict. If they are consistent then we would expect the results to be similar (Fairfax would always lose to McLean in a particular race – for example). Does that happen? I think yes.

Now I have to figure out how to . . . → Read More: Predicting Rowing Races – Part 1

How did my predictions do for the Virginia Championships?

I made predictions for four of the races here:

Men’s First Eight

Women’s First Eight

Men’s First Four

Women’s First Four

How did I do?

Looking at the order in which they were run.

Men’s First Four: Here I had expected McLean to win a tight race. I talked with a McLean parent who mentioned that one of the rowers wasn’t able to row in one of the other boats – so they ended up having to switch the rowers around. If this is true it would explain why McLean was only able to get 4th. This left Gloucester – whom I picked to place – to take the race. O’Connell was able to get by Fairfax for 5th – . . . → Read More: How did my predictions do for the Virginia Championships?

VASRA – Virginia Championship – Women’s First Four Prediction

The teams here came out of heats of 3 and 4 contenders – so there weren’t a whole lot of surprises here. Below are the teams, where they were in the Friday Heats at Stotesbury – and if they made finals – their times in their semi-final heats (None made the ultimate final):

Woodbridge: (4th) 5:49.87

West Springfield: (16th) 5:55.64

South County: (22nd) N/A

Episcopal: (18th) 6:01.40

Great Bridge: (12th) 5:59.53

Forest Park – (37th) N/A

Let’s look at the teams:

Woodbridge: Class of the field. Based on their performance at Stotesbury they should finish comfortably ahead in this field. Didn’t see them race at the Occoquan until the Al Urquia regatta – but they took care of a very . . . → Read More: VASRA – Virginia Championship – Women’s First Four Prediction

VASRA – Virginia Championship – Men’s First Four Prediction

We are on to the Men’s First Four competition. All these teams look as though they competed at Stotesbury – I’m assuming in the “Boys Senior Four” category. Listed below are the teams, their seed from Friday Heats, the time in those heats, and then the time in the semi-finals (if they ran in a semi-final)

Woodbridge: 13th, 5:21.36 semi: 5:09.19

O’Connell: 23rd, 5:31.79 semi: N/A

Fairfax: 16th, 5:25.23 semi: 5:18.74

McLean: 8th, 5:18.45 semi: 5:11.81

Gloucester: 9th, 5:19.17 semi: 5:05.18

TC Williams: 12th, 5:20.96 semi: 5:06.19

McLean: Going into this event – theyhad won every heat against local competition (that I saw) except for taking second to Fairfax in the heats for this event. This could be forgiven since . . . → Read More: VASRA – Virginia Championship – Men’s First Four Prediction

VASRA – Virginia Championship – Women's First Eight Prediction

The Women’s First Eight Final on 22 May has six strong contenders: TC Williams, Robinson, Yorktown, National Cathedral, McLean, and Georgetown Visitation. How did they do at Stotesbury?

National Cathedral: 6th in Friday Heats – 3rd in their final – beating Yorktown

Robinson: Did not row at Stotesbury

TC Williams: 11th in Friday Heats – 4th in their final

Yorktown: 13 in Friday Heats – 4th in their final – beat by National Cathedral

McLean: 15th in Friday Heats – 5th in their final – beating Georgetown Visitation

Georgetown Visitation: 16th in Friday Heats – 6th in their final, beaten by McLean

I tend to believe the times in the semis rather than those in the Friday heats – since . . . → Read More: VASRA – Virginia Championship – Women's First Eight Prediction

VASRA – Virginia State Championships – Final Heats – Men's Eight Final

When we last had the Virginia State Championships 🙂 – we were able to get in all of the preliminary heats but none of the finals. It looks as though VASRA has decided to hold the final heats during what originally was the Occoquan Classic on 22 May 2010. Based on the projected 10AM start time, it looks as though we will only see the upperclass finals. It would have been nice to see the freshman and novices get one more chance to race – but it doesn’t look as though it will happen. Maybe I’ll be surprised – it would be nice to see VASRA add a “press releases” page and keep us updated.

The good news – for . . . → Read More: VASRA – Virginia State Championships – Final Heats – Men's Eight Final

Heats Posted! How were my Predictions?

VASRA has posted the results from the heats of the VASRA Virginia State Championships. Luckily for me – I had only done predictions for the heats. What follows in red is my original predictions. After each prediction – in bold – is my assessment of how I did and what 20-20 advice I have.

Before I start – one admission and kudo. I was convince that VASRA would have some unfair heats put together in the race (after I noticed one in the Darrell Winslow regatta this year). By unfair, I’m thinking of a situation where two teams which deserved to go to finals might be in a heat where only one would advance. I have to say – they . . . → Read More: Heats Posted! How were my Predictions?

VASRA Rowing State Championships not Finished

See the reports from the Washington Post and Inside Nova.

Disappointing to say the least. We’ll see if they post results so I can evaluate my predictions. I was hoping to do a post where I looked at this years performance compared to last years to see which teams had moved up and which had moved down. That will either be delayed or I will have to find a different method. Good luck to the Stotesbury rowers next weekend.

Happy Mother’s Day!!! 🙂

Predictions – Virginia State Championship

This post will contain the predictions I am making for the VASRA Virginia State Rowing Championship on 8 May 2010. This post will be refreshed as we get closer to Saturday – so check back for updates.

Update: 7 May 5pm: After spending a lot of time on this effort yesterday, I’ve decided to stop with what I have. It is still a very time-intensive process to put together these predictions. I’ve also determined several updates I want to put into my work. Hopefully what I provided will pan out and be helpful. If not – back to the drawing board.

As you may have read from an earlier post – I am using a charting method to try . . . → Read More: Predictions – Virginia State Championship

Results of Predictions for Al Urquia Regatta

Time to look at how my predictions did at the Al Urquia Regatta at the Occoquan. I sat in the stands and was able to see the two heats for the Men’s First Eight. Very Exciting! The second heat was especially fantastic as the first three boats crossed the finish line almost simultaneously. The rain held off and the day was pleasantly cool. The only downside is I walked away with two deaf ears. My left ear rang with “Go Woodson!” and my right with “Westfields!” 😉

I talked with a couple nice folks in the stands during the races and they pointed out a possible deficiency with my models: Sometimes, the rowers will change. They are right – I . . . → Read More: Results of Predictions for Al Urquia Regatta

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