M18 and W18 Predictions for the Darrell Winslow Regatta

OK – time to see if there is anything interesting for the regatta this weekend.  I will just be covering random items that interest me here.  If you have been following along you can review some of the evaluations I posted earlier for:

Mens First Eight

Mens Second Eight

Womens First Eight

Womens Second Eight

And various other Charts for other races.

Sorry Freshmen and Novices – not much for you right now…

I do these very quickly. I may make mistakes. Use them as an idea generator to guide your own decisions – don’t just rely on what I say.

Men’s First Eight Heats:
In the first heat three of the four teams will move onto the finals. BCC beat Yorktown by 4 seconds in the Noxontown Regatta on 7 April. So that puts them close to TJ in terms of performance (roughly) Madison has performed better than Robinson each of the past two races (by 2-5 seconds) so you have to give them a little advantage there. The wildcard here seems to be McLean. I don’t have them in my charts so far this year. By comparison they were 16 seconds behind TJ in the Championships last year (missing out on finals.) So if they improve this could be a four-way throwdown. If they have gotten worse, we could see the top three cruise easily to the finals. By the time they reach the stands I suspect much of the strategy will have played out on the course.

In the second heat we have no TJ. Three of the four advance to the finals. Oakton is a contender – hands down. Lake Braddock is not too shabby – perhaps just a little less capable than Robinson. West Springfield showed spunk in the Polar Bear, but was trailing badly 2 weeks ago (did they have an excuse?) Forest Park is a tough contender. If West Springfield returns to form this should be a fairly tight heat (less than 10 seconds between the 4 boats.)

Overall – much of this even depends on McLean. If they are competitive they will keep the other three boats in the heat honest (the same for West Springfield as well.) Not having a good idea of BCCs capabilities, I think they control their own destiny. Two weeks since the last regatta, who of the local teams might take it? There still could be a fairly big change in performance by one of the teams, but I think the odds favor Oakton or Madison over the others.

Womens First Eight Heats:

In the first race we find Madison in the outside lane (6). Curious! Was this a choice by the team or simply random lane placement? Also, since Madison is clearly the class of the field – why would you put them in the race with five boats while the other heat only has four? (clearly – this affects the other teams more than Madison)

Looking at BCC – their 8 beat West Springfield by 49 seconds in the Noxontown Regatta on 7 April. WOW! That puts them in the same league as Madison! I’m not sure these two should be in the same heat – they will probably take 1-2 in the final. I hope they spread these two in the morning into different heats. (Blog author’s opinion – of course. I will say this hinges on a single team’s performance – West Springfield – but it looks to me like these two are far-and-away the best two boats in the field)

Of the other three in that first heat, Robinson is a clear third, Lake Braddock fourth, and Gar-field trails. Even if they don’t change the participants in this heat, those 2 teams plus Robinson will likely make the finals.

In the second hear we have four well-known teams. Oakton and Woodson look competetive with each other, with the advantage going to Woodson. Forest Park looks to take third. South County struggled two weeks ago.

It will be interesting to see if I have evaluated BCC and Madison correctly.  The problem with going out on a limb is that sometimes you fall off.

No more predictions for tonight – I have to get my gear ready for tomorrow.  Good luck all.

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