Women’s 2nd Eight Evaluation

I have updated my charts from the regional park regatta (for a few select races). In this post I will discuss the Women’s 2nd Eight. You can find a copy of my chart in this pdf file: Womans_2nd_Eight

Here is a quick update on how to read the chart:

Each vertical column is a race. I mark heats and finals separately since I give more validity to finals (usually). The teams are listed in the order they finish during the race. The separation between the names represents how many seconds they are apart. The green bar above the names represents the first place team in that race.

After entering the data – I go in and try to normalize the team performance. In other words – I will move a whole column up or down in order to give a team consistent performance across all races (yes – this is subjective.) This gives me an idea of how the teams will rank if they all raced against each other in the same race.

Note: It is not uncommon for me to make mistakes.

Based on the races so far, this is how I rank the teams. The top performer has an offset of “0”. The number for each of the other teams represents how far behind the leader I believe them to be. (This too, is somewhat subjective)

Rank of the Women’s 2nd Eight:

Madison: 0
Oakton: 18-19
Thomas Jefferson: 16-21
Whitman: 21
Robinson: 27
Woodbridge: 29-32
Forest Park: 29-33
Westfield: 29-38

Analysis: Keeping this current line-up, Madison will continue to beat these teams handily this year. Will National Cathedral or TC Williams show up to spoil their sweep? That is a good question. Oakton and Thomas Jefferson seemed destined to be rivals throughout the season, as do Robinson, Forest Park,  and Woodbridge. Will Lake Braddock join this group?

It is still early in the season. The next race should help refine this picture a bit. Perhaps I have over compensated the alignments of the heats this early in the season, and the second tier will be much more competitive. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Madison doesn’t look like they can be touched.

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