Polar Bear Predictions???

The following test was a post from “Ryan” in the forums.  While I didn’t like the forums, I did like Ryan’s post.  What follows is Ryan’s post – plus two comments in reply before I removed the forum. 

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So, now that the regular spring season is over, aside from a few club events and erg sprints, the next time most schools will meet face to face on the occoquan will be at the Polar Bear Regatta in 2012. So to help start up these forums, (because let’s face it, Eamonn Foley’s blog showed us all that we really do need something like this ;] ) I thought I’d give my guess at what boats will beat what, based on the results from last years polar bear regatta as well as last year’s states. (My logic is that Polar Bear shows how hard people worked during winter conditioning, and how much people improved over the season.) Obviously this is an extremely flawed way of predicting the outcome, but I thought it’d be fun to at least give it a shot. I’m only doing the 1v8 as well, because doing all of them would just take forever (props to NewCuriousThoughts, no idea how you do it) Feel free to comment, or even add your own predictions

Polar Bear Regatta – 2011
Heat A

  • Westfield (1) 4:34.2
  • Oakton (2) 4:37.0
  • Woodson (3) 4:45.4
  • Robinson (4) 4:47.4
  • W Springfield (5) 4:51.5
  • South County (6) 4:54.3

Heat B

  • T Jefferson (1) 4:43.9
  • 
Madison (2) 4:49.0
  • Woodbridge (3) 4:50.4
  • Forest Park (4) 4:59.1
  • Lake Braddock (5) 5:03.3
  • Mt Vernon (6) 5:24.0

Finals

  • T Jefferson (1) 5:07.2
  • 
Oakton (2) 5:08.8
  • Westfield (3) 5:09.0
  • Madison (4) No time listed
  • Woodbridge (5) 5:21.08
  • Woodson (6) 5:26.1

On second thought, I’m not gonna include the results from States, just because it takes too long to type out But here’s a link if you’re curious http://roninregistration.com/rowing/results/resultseventlist.asp?p=default&pt=rowing&GroupID=40816&Year=2011

Basically, you can’t compare the times from these two events due to completely different conditions, but you CAN compare how certain schools performed against other schools.

Anyways, based on last years Polar Bear contestants, I predict…

Westfield and TJ are going to have a really good fight for first. They dominated their heats in Polar Bear, with TJ taking the win in Finals, but TJ ended up coming short of Westfield at States. From this I’ll assume that TJ conditions their rowers slightly better than Westfield, but Westfield had a better workout during the season. (Just an assumption) Anyways I think it’ll be these two competing for the top two spots.
Based on the 3 second rule, it looks like Oakton will easily have that third place spot, although they did seem to find an extra gear and take out Westfield in the Finals at polar bear, so it could very well just be TJ and Oakton for 1st and 2nd. On the other hand, Madison has always done very well, and they have a great program (I don’t care what anyone says about the whole jr 8 thing, many other schools have done it, and they weren’t stacking their boats to try and get an easy win. They have a great rowing program and a great coaching staff, so back off [W-L on the other hand can go row in Alaska for all I care ] ) Madison could easily give Oakton a run for their money.

So far I’m guessing
TJ
Westfield
Oakton/Madison
Madison/Oakton

At this point, this is starting to sound really redundant, and more like just an ordering of the fastest times at Polar Bear.. but for the sake of consistancy, and because I’d like to see this forum thrive, I’ll finish it out Don’t make fun of me though, I think this post sounds stupid as well

Anyways, for 5th and 6th, at Polar Bear, the spots were taken by Woodbridge and Woodson, but it looks like Woodbridge didn’t stick with a 1v8 for the entire season. Woodson on the other hand seemed to decline in performance, with Forest Park and Robison barely beating them at States finals. 3 second rule makes me think it’ll be
TJ
Westfield
Oakton/Madison
Madison/Oakton
Forest Park
Woodson/Robinson

The rest of the boats!
W Springfield – They’re definitely not out of the competition, they performed decently at States, and weren’t too far from the rest of the competition.
South County – Didn’t really do too hot, but seem to have a pretty good set of novices. Maybe they’ll find that extra gear?
Lake Braddock – They have a chance, looks like Heat B had more weather than Heat A, but they weren’t too far off.
Mt Vernon – Not to be mean, but I’ve never actually seen them do too well. I could be wrong, I wish I had paid more attention to the events I wasn’t personally in during the season. But yeah, they could always pull something nice

Ah I think that’s everyone, if not I’m sorry.

And again, this post was stupid, and I realized it mid way. Sorry Maybe it’ll get some conversation started though!

(and the following replies…)
July 8, 2011 at 11:14 am  Jimmy
How many people have TJ/Westfield/Oakton graduated?
July 8, 2011 at 4:19 pm mnict1

I see that so far it appears you have only made predictions on the men’s side, though you did not specify as such. Any predictions for the ladies?
And I don’t know how many they’ve graduated, but I’m sure there’s a way to find out.

Hopefully we can continue this discussion soon…

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