Predictions Revisited: W28, M28 Edition

Trying something a little different here:  The original text is in italics – the new text is in BLUE

W28 – A:  Madison is the top team in this heat.  GV looks like they follow about 7 seconds later.  Westfield is further back in third.  Sidwell and West Potomac are comparable but struggle against the others.

*Madison took first.  GV followed 6 seconds later. (if you are observant – you’ll notice I only mention the times when they support my prediction 🙂  )  Westfield was only one second behind GV.  This heat was pretty much as predicted.

W28 – B: TC Williams looks to take the heat.  Yorktown beat NCS by two seconds on 30 April – so it is really is a toss-up between those two for the second spot.  Lake Braddock is well off the pace.

*TC Williams did take the heat.  Yorktown was second and NCS was 4 seconds behind that.  Again – pretty much as predicted.

W28-C: TJ is best positioned to take the top spot.  I suspect second spot will be a battle, but I’m giving the edge to Robinson over Washington-Lee.  West Springfield will have a tough time here.

* Robinson took the top spot here and beat out Jefferson by 3 seconds.  W-L was third another 10 seconds back.  Did TJ take it easy here – just getting a spot in the finals?  Perhaps.  TJ ended up finishing the final almost 6 seconds ahead of Robinson.  Also Robinson’s time was 5:23 – the fastest time in the heats and much faster than Madison’s 5:34 in the first heat.  I doubt that is the explanation for all the performance, but at some level it was probably a contributor.

* I didn’t offer an overall result here.  Looking back at my notes I would have ranked them (numbers driven) as TC, TJ, Madison.  But Madison also won the Al Urquia.  It was discrepancies like this that caused me a lot of frustrations with my program.  But – to be honest – I likely would have called the final order wrong.

M28-A: St Albans – no doubt here.  Second place goes to a good Westfields.  Third goes to Forest Park.  Woodson is 7 seconds behind FP in my rankings.  Can they get in a challenge for 3rd? – it isn’t out of the question.

* STA won and Westfields was second.  FP was game in third place.  Woodson couldn’t get close, and was 10 seconds behind FP at the end.  Pretty much according to plan.

M28-B: TJ should take this heat.  Oakton should come through in second place.  Third place is possible for any of the remaining teams.  I would put them in order of West Springfield, Robinson, Lake Braddock.  But the place will go to whomever rows the best race.

* Two amazing things in this race.  The first had to do with TJ, who went to the start with 8 rowers and returned to the finish with only 7.  After losing a rower mid-course they were able to get rid of his oar, rally, and take third to get into the finals.  Absolutely incredible. Anyone who was at the Ted Phoenix last weekend saw them row a team of 7 girls to a competitive finish – but this is one step above.

In their absence, the heat didn’t go to Oakton (as expected) – but Robinson.  Robinson was incredible and bested Oakton by over 5 seconds.  In cases of marked regression or improvement I almost always look to a ‘line-up’ change as the reason.  I am such a conspiracy theorist I went looking for pictures to prove Robinson had stacked their boat with members of their 1V (or some cast-off Four) to improve their chances…  I looked at the pictures.  Same guys!!!  I looked at races and they had gotten 3rd, 4th,4th, 5th, and 6th in finals this year.  They chose a good weekend to put it all together.  Based on my numbers I would have placed them at 7th out of  9 teams – but they won their heat and came in 4th overall!  Great job Robinson!!

Overall – I didn’t make overall predictions, but they would likely have been STA, TJ, WF, Oakton, FP, West Springfield.  Close – but I can’t take numbers for something I didn’t predict…

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