Final Comments: MV8, WJ4

First – I am debating whether or not to bring the camera tomorrow.  I don’t have rain gear.  I may not have any pictures or videos from the races.

Second – After pouring over my computer printouts over this past week, I’m more aware of the deficiencies in my program.  This can lead to big number swings.  I still think the assessments are fairly good, but they shouldn’t be accepted as gospel.

In my original post on the Mens First Eight, I didn’t have heat sheets available.  Now that I have them I have some further thoughts.

Heat A:  St Albans should clear this field easily.  The other three teams will be in a tremendous battle for the second transfer position into the finals.  They all look relatively evenly matched.  Any of those three can make the finals along with STA but they will probably be tired when they get there.

Heat B:   Yorktown and Oakton should be able to secure the top two spots and move on into the finals.

Heat C:  TJ and Westfield will probably have a tough time here.  McLean is a very good team and we would expect them to be pushing for the finals.   They can put significant pressure on TJ and WF through the whole race.  They could possibly get by one of those two into the finals.

Overall:  The setup seems to solidify a possible one-two finish by STA and York.  Can Oakton take advantage of a tough 3rd heat?  And who will win the Petite?  It looks wide open.  If McLean has enough gas left in the tank they are my first choice – but certainly not the only one.

 

WJR Revisited: After my original post they split this event into three heats after adding two more teams – McLean and Fairfax.  I don’t have any data on Fairfax – but McLean is good (‘might win it all’ good).  McLean took first at the Regional Park Regatta on the 23rd of April.  In the first heat, McLean should take the top spot.  Oakton looks for second but must defend against two teams I don’t have ranked in TJ and First Colonial. In the second heat, Woodson looks to advance unless both Hickory and Fairfax go to the front.  I don’t believe FP or Wakefield can challenge for the top spot.  In the last heat I have no info on Hylton and Woodbridge, and numbers-wise, Gloucester and West Springfield are equal.  I don’t think the numbers are right, I think Gloucester has the advantage (bad computer programming).  McLean, Woodson, and Gloucester all have a chance to win overall.

 

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