Predictions – Quick Versions

Time is running out The best I can do is abbreviate predictions at this point – here goes:

W28 – A:  Madison is the top team in this heat.  GV looks like they follow about 7 seconds later.  Westfield is further back in third.  Sidwell and West Potomac are comparable but struggle against the others.

W28 – B: TC Williams looks to take the heat.  Yorktown beat NCS by two seconds on 30 April – so it is really is a toss-up between those two for the second spot.  Lake Braddock is well off the pace.

W28-C: TJ is best positioned to take the top spot.  I suspect second spot will be a battle, but I’m giving the edge to Robinson over Washington-Lee.  West Springfield will have a tough time here.

M28-A: St Albans – no doubt here.  Second place goes to a good Westfields.  Third goes to Forest Park.  Woodson is 7 seconds behind FP in my rankings.  Can they get in a challenge for 3rd? – it isn’t out of the question.

M28-B: TJ should take this heat.  Oakton should come through in second place.  Third place is possible for any of the remaining teams.  I would put them in order of West Springfield, Robinson, Lake Braddock.  But the place will go to whomever rows the best race.

MJ8-A: I don’t have any information for Washington-Lee.  STA and Madison both have strong teams – I would rate them just about equal.  Forest Park comes next but a couple boat lengths off those two.  West Springfield follows.  Will Washington-Lee get in for that third slot?  I have no idea.

MJ8-B: Yorktown is the top seed here, about 2 seconds ahead of TJ.  Langley and South County probably can’t compete with those two.  Of the two I would give the edge to Langley – but the numbers are close and it could go either way.

MJ4-A:  I don’t have much information on these teams.  In this heat – Gloucester is the obvious favorite.  West Potomac is the only other team I have details on, but they are well behind Gloucester.  Will Granby, Hickory, or South County take that second position?  I guess we will have to wait and see. I couldn’t find any Junior Four Races that the Southern teams had run – so I really have no idea about their capability.

MJ4-B: Washington-Lee is the favorite in this race.  Oakton comes second and Hylton third. The spacing between the three is drawn out (on paper – at least) I have no idea where First Colonial fits into that sequence.

MJ4-C: I have no data on Gar-Field or TC Williams.   TC Williams must be respected because of their team size – they might have been able to assemble a four fairly easily. Woodbridge looks to have a good margin over Forest Park and should take the overall heat.  Forest Park is the boat at risk here.

Update: They added a third heat to the W-Jr-4 from the early sheet I was using.  I will need to fix this section…

WJ4-A: Again – not a lot of information since there aren’t a lot of Junior Four Races during the year.  Hylton, Hickory, and Woodbridge are all unfamiliar to me.  Oakton is the top seed and looks to have a comfortable margin over South County – who has a comfortable margin over Wakefield.  With three slots advancing I think Oakton should make it – but the other two slots might be up for grabs.

WJ4-B: Woodson is the top seed in this heat – but not without challenges.  West Springfield and Gloucester rate pretty evenly and within striking distance.  TJ has probably assembled a boat exclusively for this event – so we will have to see how they perform.  Forest Park isn’t too far off the WS/GLou pair – but they have a tough challenge here.  FIrst Colonial is unknown.  I think Woodson earns a spot.  Again – the next two slots are up in the air.  Of the group – Woodson looks best positioned for the overall win.

WL4-A: Madison looks the clear favorite here.  The next two slots aren’tso clear cut.  Cox comes up from the south after earning 5th in the finals at the EVSRA.  McLean and Woodbridge are almost a matched pair in my notes.  JEB Stuart is close (a few seconds) if they give their best effort – but it is probably a stretch to get past these two.  The most likely progression is Madison/McLean/Woodbridge.

WL4-B: Oakton is strong here, but not without competition.  Mount Vernon is close but I think Oakton would have to let them by.  Not much past that.  I see Great Bridge, James River, and West Springfield all further back and fighting for that third transfer spot.  Of the three, the edge goes to Great Bridge.

ML4-A: Granby took first in this event at the EVSRA – so they have to be respected since I have no way to correlate them with the rest of the teams.  West Potomac looks to be the most consistently strong of the  remaining teams.  Great Bridge was Brilliant in the Polar Bear – but hasn’t run as strong a race since.  They also finished 3rd in the same race Granby won.  Fairfax is in the mix as well, averaging about 10 seconds behind West Potomac.  Since three of these four transfer, I’m going to go with the odds and assume that it is West Potomac, Fairfax, and Granby.

ML4-B: James River picked a tough heat.  Even though they got second to Granby at the EVSRA – the other three teams here are evenly matched.  Technically the order would be South County, Lake Braddock, West Springfield – but the three teams are so closely matched they could cross in any order.  Can James River shoehorn themselves into that battle? – we’ll have to see.

M14 Predictions:  See the end of this post.

W14-A:  Norfolk Academy was 2nd in the Petite final at EVSRA.  First Colonial was 2nd in the Grand Final at the EVSRA.  So the advantage has to go to First Colonial between these two.  Great Bridge won there but they aren’t racing here.  I don’t know how they will fit into the rest of the teams.  Of the other three, Gloucester looks like a clear favorite in this group.  Following Gloucester is Mt Vernon and then Hylton.  That order looks pretty safe.  Will see whether First Colonial can drive a wedge in that order.

W14-B:  James River got 3rd in the Grand Finals at EVSRA – 7 seconds behind First Colonial.  Episcopal is the favorite here – and it looks at though they will be able to comfortably hold off Oakton (who is close – but likely not close enough).  Fairfax is not too far off these two – and they have had a wide set of performances this year.  That is probably a pretty good order for those three – and Episcopal and Oakton are likely to advance.  Can James River crack those top two?

W14-C: McLean looks to be the top seed in this heat.  They should be well clear of South County.  I have no information for Hickory – so anything is a guess.  Gar-Field is struggling in this field.  McLean and South County look assured to have Golden Tickets to the finals.  The race here is likely to be Hickory and Garfield – although it looks as though both will go to the petite finals.

Overall – I see the final as a match between Gloucester and McLean.  Gloucester won the last meeting at the Regional Park Regatta so you have to give them the preference to win it again.

M2x-A: Cox was 30 seconds behind Christchurch at the EVSRA Finals.  Technically they are in the hunt here.    Woodbridge, Hylton, and Fairfax are all closely competitive here.  Te edge goes to Hylton – then Woodbridge, then Fairfax.  If I had to guess, I would put Cox 3rd or 4th.

M2x-B: ChristChurch won the EV and won the Darrel Winslow by 6 seconds over Hylton..  Hylton isn’t here so they have to be the favorite.  JEB Stuart is competetive but would have to row a good race to get up.  Granby was 3rd at the EVSRA, 40 seconds behind ChristChurch.  That puts them in third here.  Potomac probably follows these three.

M1X: I don’t hahave any data on JEB.  Of the remaining ones,   Sidwell Friends has won repeatedly.  Cox won the EVSRA and is a legitimate contender.  I see this as a match race between those two, with a long gap back to third.    For third I will put my token with Gloucester, but they don’t have a commanding buffer over they remaining participants.

M14-A: Great Bridge is the top boat in this heat – winning the EVSRA finals and doing well as the Polar Bear.  Gloucester is a very strong boat as well, with two second place finishes in recent regattas.    First Colonial was third behind Great Bridge at the EVSRA finals – only 4 seconds behind.  If these three teams are as strong as I think they are, West Potomac is likely to be hung out to dry in 4th place.  Hickory was 2nd in the petite finals at the EVSRA, and their time was about 20 seconds behind Great Bridge.  I think they will have trouble getting up to transfer.  This is a very competitive heat.

M14-B: In this heat, Woodbridge is a little clearer favorite.  They will be pressured by Madison, but both these teams should be able to hold off South County and move onto the finals.  South County probably takes third and goes to the petities.  Gar-Field and James River battle for 4th.  James River got 5th in the EVSRA finals, but ended up 30 seconds behind Great Bridge.  That gives them a little advantage for that final transfer to the petites.

M14-C: Washington Lee is an unknown for me.  I couldn’t find any races to compare.  I suspect Mathews and TC Williams will glide away from the other two boats.  Langley isn’t bad, but I don’t see that they can compete here.

Overall: This looks to me to be the most wide open major race of the day.  I would not be surprised to see any of five teams win:  Great Bridge, Gloucester, Woodbridge, Mathews, or TC Williams.  Even better – you could throw in First Colonial and Madison into that mix as well if they have a good day.  Most times I will venture a guess.  I’m not going to venture a guess.

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