How did my Ted Phoenix Predictions do?

Here is what I wrote on Friday night.  My new edits are in BLUE

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Race #1: Men Freshman eight.  Three boats advance and it is hard not  to guess who will advance.  TC Williams  won their heat at the Darrell Winslow regatta – beating TJ  and STA in the process.  Washington-Lee beat STA as well at the Crown of Wisconsin regatta.  Yorktown and West Springfield are a close pair with the edge going to Yorktown.  I don’t think Westfield can challenge this group.  The order was TC, WL, York – I got this one pretty well correct. Lucky me. Westfield rowed better than I expected.

Race #2: Men Freshman Eight. Here we have the TJ crew (always strong) and the STA crew (also strong.)  They are my pick for advancement.  But who will be third?  Woodson seems to have a small edge over Madison here.  I don’t think McLean will be a factor.  TJ took first. STA didn’t race, and Woodson took second followed by Madison.  I’m two-for-two so far.

Race#3: Women Freshman Eight:  I give the edge here to Yorktown.  The next two slots should go comfortably to TJ and Lake Braddock.  I don’t have much info for TC Williams here but they don’t seem to be as strong as the other three.  I’ll give Woodbridge the 5th spot and Hylton the final (although Hylton’s last race was much improved)  Lake Braddock won this heat slightly over Yorktown.  I didn’t see that coming.  TJ did manage third.

Race #4: Woman’s Freshman Eight:  National Cathedral is here.  Are they any good? ;) I will give the edge to West Springfield for second.  Third is a little bit of a toss-up.  If I had to choose an order I would go for West Potomac, Washington-Lee, and the McLean.  Georgetown Visitation trails this group.  NCS won their heat comfortably. WL took second instead of third.  West Springfield took third instead of second.  Pretty close.

Race #5: Mens Novice Eight:  I couldn’t find a race where Yorktown had raced a pure Novice boat (as opposed to a Novice/Fourth).  But you have to respect the program.  I see this as a very close race with no more than 10 seconds between the first and last place boats.  If I had to choose I would take this order: Oakton, Yorktown, Mt Vernon, Washington-Lee (the last two are a matched pair in my notes).  Oakton B  will probably trail (but I really have no data for that team)  The race lineup was quite a bit different from the heatsheets in just about all the novice eight races.  Langley won ( I didn’t see that coming), Oakton got second (OK) and TC Williams was third (I thought they would win heat C – so a miss).

Race #6: Mens Novice Eight: I will give the win to a strong Madison team.  I’m not sure Woodbridge has raced a Novice Eight this year.  Who knows?  If Woodbridge doesn’t surprise then TJ should show up second followed by Hylton.  I have no data on the TJ “B” team.  Madison did win this heat. TJ-B was second.  TJ-A wasn’t in this heat. Yorktown took third.  Overall – hard to compare with the switches.

Race #6B: Mens Novice Eight:  How about “I don’t know.”  You have to respect the TC Williams depth – but who is in the boat?  Any team that can field three boats of novices can probably win based on statistics.  So we will give TC the win.  Between West Springfield and Langley we find they are even based on their ‘best’ performances.  But – if they are true to the form of the Al Urquia (last week) then Langley has a definite edge.  TJ won (they were originally in heat B), Mt Vernon was second (I chose them for second in heat-A). and TC Williams B was third.  Again – hard to compare.

Race #7/8: Women’s Novice Four: I don’t normally track these races during the year.   McLean appears to have a good team and should win their heat.  The same holds true for Yorktown in Race #8.  Langley raced in the Darrel Winslow but couldn’t compete.  And while Christchurch won their heat at the EVSRA championships last week – they regressed in the finals. Wakefield had difficulty in the Darrel Winslow as well this year.  West Springfield? Sidwell?  In the first race I look for McLean easily, followed well behind by ChristChurch – then I’ll give the edge to Potomac.  In the second – Yorktown wins easily.  Episcopal takes second, and we’ll pencil in Langley for third.  The finals will be a proc3ession, with Yorktown leading McLean – and the rest.  McLean didn’t win their heat.  They lost to ChristChurch.  So either ChristChurch made mistakes at the EVSRA finals or they have great “Fours” in Southern VA.  Episcopal was supposed to take second to Yorktown but they won (and won it all).  Could have been better…

Race #9: Mens Novice Four:   Two to the final.  Look for Woodson and Fairfax to be those two.  Potomac is in a tough spot and I don’t see that they can beat either.  Of the two I give Woodson the edge. Woodson first, Fairfax second.  a rare 100% score.

Race #10: Mens Novice Four:  Another close race   I have in my notes the following order:  Washington-Lee comfortably over Yorktown, I don’t know where  Wakefield fits – but they won their heat at the Regional Park Regatta. Wakefield (with a bearded novice – is that allowed – a bearded novice?  I still can’t grow a beard…)  was the surprise taking the win. Washington-Lee was second, and Yorktown was third. Obviously I didn’t know Wakefield’s capability.

Race #11: Womens Novice Eight:  Yorktown seems to have the advantage here.  Georgetown Visitation is technically second best off a good 2nd to Yorktown last week on the Anacostia, but not as consistent.  Jefferson comes third then Hylton 4th.  Realistically, I think it is a toss-up between those three teams for the second position in the finals.  Without numbers, I have been impressed with the TJ women this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them up for second. No Yorktown in this race.  Madison was in this race and won it easily.  GV was second (as might be expected), and TJ-B was third, a bit of a surprise.  Hard to tell with all the mix between my predictions and the race.

Race #12:  Womens Novice Eight: Lake Braddock was easily the best at the Al Urquia last week.  In fact – the Lake Braddock “B” team was the second best of 10 teams that day.  Will we see a Lake Braddock 1-2 finish?  The only team I see that can stop that would be the Washington-Lee team (which doesn’t seem that strong)  Following (or leading) Washington-Lee will be Mount Vernon, and then probably Langley (whom I couldn’t find any previous races.) Lake Braddock won, Mt, Vernon was 2nd and Langley was third.  WL was moved to another heat.

Race #12a: Womens Novice Eight: In  the last heat we have the Madison women followed closely by the Oakton women.  Woodson is within striking distance of those two.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oakton win.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Woodson take second.  I would be surprised if Woodson were able to push through for the win.  Woodson won, Oakton was 2nd, and Yorktown was third.  Not bad considering Madison moved to another heat.

Races 13-16: Third and Fourth Boats:  I just don’t have any way to evaluate these races. We can just watch them develop.

Overall Winners:

Here are my guesses.

Men Freshman Eight: 1) TC Williams, 2)Thomas Jefferson, 3) St Albans (same as the Darrell Winslow)

Thomas Jefferson, Yorktown, then TC Williams.  Not a very good prediction.  Yorktown rowed a brilliant race.  They were the only team to improve on their time from the heats earlier in the day. Best tactical race of the day in my opinion.

Womens Freshman Eight: 1) National Cathedral, 2) Yorktown, 3) West Springfield (NCS vs Yorktown is really a toss-up.  Perhaps TJ for 3rd)

National Cathedral, Yorktown, Lake Braddock.  National Cathedral was one of the most the most dominant team in any of the events coming into today on paper.  Yorktown was only a second behind the week before – they just couldn’t keep up today.   Lake Braddock was the big surprise here.  Kudos to their team.

Mens Novice Eight: 1) Madison, 2) Oakton, 3) ????  (my longshot – Yorktown)

Madison won, TJ was second, and Mt Vernon was third.  Not my best prediction.  Madison won by a good 5 seconds – very nice job.

Womens Novice Four: 1) Yorktown, 2) McLean, 3) Someone else very far back.

Episcopal won, ChristChurch was second, and McLean was third.  Yorktown was fourth.  Another underwhelming prediction.  Episcopal and ChristChurch were better than I expected.  Just another reason not to take this too seriously…

Mens Novice Four: I don’t have a clue…

I should have admitted to this in several other races too 🙂

Womens Novice Eight: 1) Lake Braddock, 2) Madison, 3) Oakton.

Madison wins, and then Woodson, followed by Georgetown Visitation.  Lake Braddock was fifth.  Quite a ways off from what I expected.

 

Overall:  I would have hoped to have done better – but I tried the best with the numbers I had.  I’m hoping the Varsity races will be a little more consistent for me.  After evaluating these races I went through and modified my program to score a little differently.  I’m hoping it will give me a little better resolution to distinguish the winners.  We’ll see….

P.S. –   Best quote of the day.  By not being in front of the grandstands you sometimes get to hear the coxswains as they go by.  As one went by I heard them yelling “They’re beating us!  They’re beating us!” I’ll let everyone draw their own conclusions.

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