Regional Park Regatta – Predictions revisited.

OK – we had simple predictions this time around.  Time to see how I did.  The original predictions below are in black – my comments are in green

My original prediction post was here.

The Race Numbers refer to the VASRA Heatsheets for the Regional Park Regatta

Race #1: I don’t have data for Potomac or Western Albemarle. Hylton should win followed 40 seconds later by JEB Stuart with another 20 to Fairfax.  Hylton won, JEB was only 20 seconds later, and Fairfax was 25 seconds off the pace.  Got the order right but the numbers were pretty far off.
Race #2: No data for Mercyhurst. Gloucester should win with Mt Vernon and South County fighting it out 10 seconds later. Fairfax should be about 20 seconds from the front. Gloucester won, Mt Vernon was a no-show – so South County was 10 seconds later.  Fairfax was a minute off the pace.  Again – right order – somewhat close on times.
Race #3: McLean first, Oakton 10 seconds later, Woodson and Hylton fighting it out for third about 40 seconds from the lead.McLean won. Hylton took second (30 seconds later), Oakton was 35 seconds off the pace. Woodson was a little over 50 seconds later.  Somewhat close – with Oakton being well off prediction.
Race #4: Not much data. Madison should win, Westfield 20 seconds later – don’t know about the others. Madison won.  Westfield was only 5 seconds behind.  Was Westfield fast, Madison slow, or my numbers wrong? Hmmm….
Race #5: No data for McLean – Robinson should beat the other 2. Woodson 10 seconds behind Robinson, Mt Vernon 30 seconds behind.Robinson won, Woodson was 20 seconds behind in 3rd.  Mt Vernon was 34 seconds off the pace.
Race #6: Woodson should win. Oakton and South County are close with Oakton having a 5 second edge. No data for Wakefield. Woodson won.  Oakton second.  South County well past that in third – 17 seconds slower than Oakton.
Race #12: Madison should take the win. And they did.
Race #20: A match race between Westfield and Oakton. McLean should manage third. Robinson and SouthCounty fight it out for 4th (while Forest Park has a lesser chance here as well.) Mt Vernon is at the back.  Westfield and Oakton were in a Match Race – about 9 seconds ahead of McLean in third.   Forest Park ran a great race for fourth.  Robinson was 5th followed by Mt Vernon.  South County was  well off projection in last.  More variation in my predictions than expected.
Race 22: JEB Stuart and Hylton should be close… Nope – Hylton beat JEB by over 30 seconds.
Race 23: Don’t know about Westfield. Of the other three, it should be Woodson – then Madison – then McLean. As predicted.
Race 24: I would take Gloucester for the win – but I’m missing data on the other teams. Gloucester did win.
Race 28: Westfield has the advantage here. Oakton and Robinson fight it out for second. Forest Park rounds out the field. Don’t know about McLean and Woodbridge (both Lightweights).  Absolutely wrong.
Race 29: Don’t know about the Oakton Light. Madison, then Robinson 15 seconds later, and Westfield 20 seconds after that. Almost perfectly aligned with the prediction.
Race 30: Woodson beats South County comfortably (15-20 seconds) Totally wrong.
Race 31: Don’t know about Potomac. Oakton has the advantage but Madison is a threatening second. Mt Vernon is a close 3rd (5-7 seconds from the winner) McLean and Woodbridge are competetive with each other, but well off the pace. Madison barely takes Oakton.  Mt Vernon was third.  McLean and Woodbridge were about three seconds apart.  Good prediction.
Race 32: Woodbridge first, Hylton 10 seconds behind. Potomac and JEB Stuart about 60 seconds back. Don’t know about Western Albermarle. Woodbridge was first.  Hylton was exactly 10 seconds behind. Potomac and JEB Stuart were 50 seconds back.


Overall – some good, some bad.  Looks like I am on the right track…  I’ll keep testing.


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